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This yr will likely be one in every of “restoration and preparation on each side, like 1916 and 1941-42 within the final world wars,” mentioned Marc Thys, who retired as Belgium’s deputy protection chief final yr with the rank of lieutenant common.
Wanting forward
To evaluate prospects for the yr forward, POLITICO requested analysts, serving officers and navy specialists to provide their view on the course of the warfare.
No person may present a exact roadmap for 2024, however all agreed that three fundamentals will decide the trajectory of the approaching months. First, this spring is about managing expectations as Ukraine will not have the gear or the personnel to launch a big counteroffensive; second, Russia, with the assistance of its allies, has secured artillery superiority and, along with relentless floor assaults, is pounding Ukrainian positions; and third, with out Western air protection and long-range missiles in addition to artillery shells, Kyiv will battle to mount a reputable, sustained protection.
“The yr will likely be troublesome, nobody can predict from which route Russia will go or whether or not we are going to advance this yr,” mentioned Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian navy analyst and sergeant with the Naval Forces Marine Corps Reserve.
It is clear, nevertheless, that Ukraine is on the again foot.
After many weeks of bloody combating, Russia lastly took the fortress metropolis of Avdiivka this month. With out pausing for a breather, its navy proceeded to launch assaults on different key Ukrainian strongpoints and logistical hubs: Robotyne within the area of Zaporizhzia, Kupiansk in Kharkiv, and Chasiv Yar in Donetsk area.
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