The Looming Contest Between Two Presidents and Two Americas

Every of them has sat behind the Resolute Desk within the Oval Workplace, signed payments into legislation, appointed judges, bartered with overseas leaders and ordered the armed forces into fight. They each know what it’s wish to be essentially the most highly effective particular person on the planet.

But the final election matchup that appears seemingly after this week’s New Hampshire major represents greater than the first-in-a-century contest between two males who’ve each lived within the White Home. It represents the conflict of two presidents of profoundly completely different nations, the president of Blue America versus the president of Pink America.

The looming showdown between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, assuming Nikki Haley can not pull off a hail-mary shock, goes past the binary liberal-conservative cut up of two political events acquainted to generations of Individuals. It’s not less than partly about ideology, sure, but in addition basically about race and faith and tradition and economics and democracy and retribution and most of all, maybe, about identification.

It’s about two vastly disparate visions of America led by two presidents who, apart from their age and the latest entry on their résumés, might hardly be extra dissimilar. Mr. Biden leads an America that, as he sees it, embraces range, democratic establishments and conventional norms, that considers authorities at its finest to be a pressure for good in society. Mr. Trump leads an America the place, in his view, the system has been corrupted by darkish conspiracies and the undeserving are favored over hard-working on a regular basis folks.

Deep divisions in the US should not new; certainly, they are often traced again to the Constitutional Conference and the times of John Adams versus Thomas Jefferson. However in response to some students, they’ve hardly ever reached the degrees seen immediately, when Pink and Blue Americas are shifting farther and farther aside geographically, philosophically, financially, educationally and informationally.

Individuals don’t simply disagree with one another, they stay in several realities, every with its personal self-reinforcing Web-and-media ecosphere. The Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol was both an outrageous rebellion in service of an unconstitutional energy seize by a proto-fascist or a authentic protest that will have gotten out of hand however has been exploited by the opposite aspect and turned patriots into hostages.

The 2 lands have radically completely different legal guidelines on entry to abortion and weapons. The partisan breakdown is so cemented in 44 states that they successfully already sit in a single America or the opposite relating to the autumn election. Meaning they may barely see one of many candidates, who will focus primarily on six battleground states that may resolve the presidency.

In an more and more tribal society, Individuals describe their variations extra personally. Since Mr. Trump’s election in 2016, in response to the Pew Analysis Heart, the share of Democrats who see Republicans as immoral has grown from 35 % to 63 % whereas 72 % of Republicans say the identical about Democrats, up from 47 %. In 1960, about 4 % of Individuals mentioned they’d be displeased if their youngster married somebody from the opposite social gathering. By 2020, that had grown to almost 4 in 10. Certainly, solely about 4 % of all marriages immediately are between a Republican and a Democrat.

“At this time, after we take into consideration America, we make the important error of imagining it as a single nation, a marbled mixture of crimson and blue folks,” Michael Podhorzer, a former political director of the AFL-CIO, wrote in an essay final month. “However America has by no means been one nation. We’re a federated republic of two nations: Pink Nation and Blue Nation. This isn’t a metaphor; it’s a geographic and historic actuality.”

The present divide displays essentially the most important political realignment since Republicans captured the South and Democrats the North following the civil rights laws of the Sixties. Mr. Trump has reworked the G.O.P. into the social gathering of the white working class, rooted strongly in rural communities and resentful of globalization, whereas Mr. Biden’s Democrats have more and more turn out to be the social gathering of the extra extremely educated and economically higher off, who’ve thrived within the data age.

“Trump was not the reason for this realignment, because it has been constructing for the reason that early Nineties,” mentioned Douglas B. Sosnik, who was a White Home counselor to President Invoice Clinton and research political tendencies. However “his victory in 2016 and his presidency accelerated these tendencies. And this realignment is basically based mostly on the winners and losers within the new Twenty first-century digital economic system, and the very best predictor of whether or not you’re a winner or loser is your stage of schooling.”

The leaders of those two Americas every wield energy in their very own method. As the present occupant of the White Home, Mr. Biden has all the benefits and drawbacks of incumbency. However Mr. Trump has been performing as an incumbent in a trend too — he by no means conceded his 2020 defeat and the vast majority of his supporters, polls present, imagine that he, not Mr. Biden, is the authentic president.

Even with out a formal workplace, Mr. Trump has set the agenda for Republicans in Washington and the state capitals. He inspired the inner coup that took down Speaker Kevin McCarthy final yr after he made a spending take care of Mr. Biden. He’s advising the present speaker, Mike Johnson, on how you can deal with the deadlock over border coverage and safety support for Ukraine.

Many elected Republicans who as soon as stood towards Mr. Trump, with notable exceptions, have rushed to endorse him in current weeks as his declare to the social gathering’s presidential nomination has grown virtually full. In consequence, it’s exhausting to think about any main coverage deal coming collectively in Washington this yr with out Mr. Trump’s approval or not less than his acquiescence.

The present scenario has no precise analog in American historical past. Solely twice earlier than have two presidents confronted off towards one another. In 1892, former President Grover Cleveland gained a rematch towards President Benjamin Harrison. In 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt misplaced a third-party bid to depose his successor and estranged protégé, President William Howard Taft, however paved the way in which for victory by the Democratic candidate, Woodrow Wilson.

Neither of these contests mirrored the form of epochal second that students and political professionals see this yr. When historians seek for parallels, they usually level to the interval earlier than the Civil Conflict, when an industrializing North and an agrarian South have been divided over slavery. Whereas secession immediately is far-fetched, the truth that it nonetheless comes up in dialog amongst Democrats in California and Republicans in Texas now and again signifies how divorced many Individuals really feel from one another.

“At any time when I point out the 1850s, everybody thinks we’re going to have a civil conflict,” mentioned Sean Wilentz, a Princeton historian who was amongst a gaggle of students who met not too long ago with Mr. Biden. “I’m not saying that. It’s not predictive. However when establishments are weakened or modified or reworked the way in which they’ve, you will get perspective from historical past. I believe folks have but to grasp simply how irregular the scenario is.”

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are each traditionally unpopular presidents. Mr. Biden opens his re-election yr with an approval score of simply 39 % in Gallup polling, the bottom of any elected president at this level going again to Dwight D. Eisenhower. The 2 are primarily equal in favorability, a barely completely different query, with 41 % expressing optimistic emotions about Mr. Biden in contrast with 42 % about Mr. Trump.

However they characterize completely different electorates. Mr. Biden is seen favorably by 82 % of Democrats however solely 4 % of Republicans. Mr. Trump is seen favorably by 79 % of Republicans however solely 6 % of Democrats.

In Mr. Sosnik’s newest evaluation, Mr. Biden begins the final election with 226 seemingly votes within the Electoral Faculty and Mr. Trump with 235. To get to the 270 wanted for victory, one among them must harvest a few of the 77 votes up for seize in half a dozen states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

As a result of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have each served as president, Individuals already know what they give thought to them. That can make it more durable for both to outline his opponent with the general public the way in which that President George W. Bush outlined John F. Kerry in 2004 and President Barack Obama outlined Mitt Romney in 2012.

However the wild playing cards this yr stay distinctive nonetheless — an 81-year-old incumbent who’s already the oldest president in American historical past towards a 77-year-old predecessor who’s going through 91 felony counts in 4 separate felony indictments. Nobody can say for positive how these dynamics will play out over the subsequent 285 days, which Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are already treating as the final election presidential marketing campaign.

And whereas voters might have already got some sense of how the winner will function within the White Home over the subsequent 4 years, it’s not in any respect clear how a divided nation will reply to victory by one or the opposite. Rejectionism, disruption, additional schism, even violence all appear doable.

As Mr. Wilentz mentioned, “Issues should not regular right here. I believe that’s vital for folks to grasp.”