Continuity was the surprise in Indonesia’s legislative elections – New Mandala

On 14 February Indonesians didn’t solely elect a brand new president, but additionally 580 members of the parliament, the Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR).

The primary 4 post-Suharto parliamentary elections had been topic to nice scrutiny, being scheduled months earlier than the appointment of the president (in 1999) and the direct election of the president (from 2004). However on account of a 2013 Constitutional Court docket resolution, each legislative and presidential elections have been held on the identical day, all however making certain that curiosity within the DPR elections has been buried within the avalanche of consideration on who would prevail within the presidential polls.

The composition of the DPR elected in February will nonetheless be a vital issue for the soundness and success of the incoming Prabowo administration. The steadiness of energy amongst the events within the parliament will probably be a significant factor figuring out the composition of the incoming president’s cupboard. The parliament can doubtlessly be a verify on the manager energy of the president and his fiscal initiatives, in addition to an instrument for contesting his legislative program.

This text supplies an summary of the 2024 DPR election outcomes, specializing in the similarity between this outcome and that of the 2019 election. In 2024, voters supported the identical events in largely the identical proportions as they did within the final election. With a few exceptions, the events have maintained their bases of help, whereas failing to interrupt into any new electoral floor.

I argue that the result reveals that every of Indonesia’s events has consolidated a base of help, regardless of an apparently low degree of social gathering identification amongst voters. I conclude that the social gathering system has solidified and that simultaneous presidential and DPR elections have strengthened the development in the direction of a two-track electoral competitors, with the presidential elections changing into a “air struggle” between nationwide leaders and the DPR elections a “floor struggle” between events at a localised degree.

Social bases versus coat tails

We will kind Indonesia’s 9 parliamentary events into two major classes. The primary consists of six events drawing help primarily from a definite section of Indonesian society or a stream (aliran) of political pondering principally targeted across the subject of the function of faith and the state, often with a specific regional power. These had been all shaped—or reformed—throughout the blossoming of democracy in 1998–1999 and have historic antecedents within the New Order.

The most important is Megawati Soekarnoputri’s PDI-P, which leads the “nationalist” stream. 4 events largely compete for the “traditionalist” and “modernist” streams of Islamic pondering: PKB, PKS, PAN and PPP. Golkar sits much less comfortably inside this categorisation, but it surely has an electoral base originating from its origins because the official regime social gathering throughout the Suharto period.

The opposite class of populist or “presidentialist” events have been created since 1999 as private political autos for main politicians who, for legislative and campaigning causes, wanted to create a celebration to help their presidential bids or, failing that, safe particular person oligarchs a powerbroking function. Presidentialist events now in embrace former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Partai Demokrat (PD), incoming president Prabowo Subianto’s Gerindra social gathering, media tycoon Surya Paloh’s Nasdem social gathering and, till its failure to enture the DPR in 2014, the Hanura social gathering based by retired common and failed Golkar presidential candidate Wiranto.

Vote share in 2024 DPR elections by social gathering

Supply: Indonesian Common Elections Fee (KPU)

The very first thing to notice within the 2024 outcomes is that Prabowo’s private car Gerindra, with 13.2% of the vote, has finished comparatively poorly on condition that its key public determine gained a decisive victory within the presidential ballot. The social gathering did obtain a 0.7 share level improve over its 2019 outcome, but it surely nonetheless solely gained third place after PDI-P and Golkar.

Gerindra may need hoped to profit from the “coat tail impact”, a longstanding trope in Indonesian political commentary suggesting that profitable a presidential marketing campaign brings success within the parliamentary elections. This was most spectacularly illustrated by PD which, after being minted for SBY in 2003, gained 7.5% of the 2004 DPR vote after which swept the sector with 21% in 2009 forward of SBY’s landslide reelection that very same yr.

Gerindra’s stable however unspectacular end in 2024 suggests the social gathering doesn’t entice widespread voter help past these drawn to the profile of its chief. It raises questions on Gerindra’s base in any of Indonesia’s regional, non secular or socio-economic communities which maintain the longevity of plenty of different events. The outcome this time might be seen as a repudiation of the ability of the “coat tail impact” impact— though it will likely be fascinating to see how Gerindra performs within the 2029 DPR election if, as appears seemingly, Prabowo stands once more. May it replicate PD’s expertise and win handsomely from its affiliation with a profitable incumbent?

The largest loser is PDI-P. Though it acquired the best vote (16.7%), it misplaced 3.2 share factors from its 2019 efficiency. The one time PDI-P has carried out worse than this was in 2009, when it crashed to 14% p.c because it was swept apart by PD in SBY’s reelection yr. A significant component seems to be that many earlier supporters had been influenced by incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s break from PDI-P, placing his immense private status behind Prabowo’s candidacy.

This outcome represents an enormous blow to Megawati and her imperious type of management of PDI-P, though her iron grip of the social gathering is unlikely to be weakened. Relations between Jokowi and Megawati had been at all times distant at greatest, and he or she gave solely half-hearted help to Jokowi’s first presidential bid in 2014. There have been frequent tensions between the 2, significantly over Megawati’s makes an attempt to subordinate Jokowi into the standing of a mere social gathering functionary of PDI-P.

Thus, within the case of PDIP not less than, it seems we could have witnessed a coat tail impact of a relatively completely different sort, the place a turncoat incumbent was in a position to shift some vote away from his personal social gathering, even when he didn’t take it to the social gathering of the presidential candidate he supported.

The largest winner is Golkar, which elevated its vote by 3.1 share factors over its 2019 outcome, going from 12.2% to fifteen.3%. That is the most important enhance skilled by any social gathering in 2024, and has positioned it in second place behind PDI-P. Though a very good outcome, it’s only barely forward of the social gathering’s 2009 and 2014 outcomes. As one of many events supporting Prabowo’s presidential bid, Golkar could have partially benefitted from the swing away from PDI-P, though this doesn’t totally account for its efficiency.

The remainder of the political scene is remarkably steady, with notable continuity within the outcomes of the final two elections. Certainly, most events have carried out very near their common for the final a number of elections.

PKB skilled a small enhance of 0.9 share factors. Its 10.6% of the vote makes it the fourth largest social gathering within the DPR, not far behind Gerindra. This maintains the consolidation of the social gathering’s help during the last three elections, recovering from its disastrous low level of solely 5% p.c in 2009, at a time when the social gathering was riven with inside splits. Certainly, this yr’s outcome may be very near what PKB acquired at its debut election in 1999.

Equally, Nasdem attracted just below a 0.9 p.c level achieve, profitable 9.7% of the vote. This social gathering has a developed a modus operandum of sponsoring candidates from rich and influential households within the areas, utilizing their native profile and assets to win seats within the social gathering’s title. Nasdem has additionally been famous for placing ahead girls from such regional “dynasties”, leading to a robust profile of feminine DPR members within the social gathering’s ranks.

PKS achieved nearly the identical outcome as in 2019. Its 8.4% of the vote is simply above the typical it has achieved within the 4 elections from 2004 to 2019, suggesting that the social gathering has been unable to interrupt out from the confines of its explicit constituency and broaden its help amongst voters from completely different Islamic traditions or amongst extra secular-minded Indonesians.

PD has registered a small decline, down 0.4 share factors to 7.4%. From its glory days when SBY was president, the social gathering has suffered a continuous erosion of recognition in subsequent elections. SBY has repeated the tendency of Indonesian leaders to succumb to the temptations of dynasticism, appointing his politically inexperienced son, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, as chief of the Democrats to the exclusion of higher certified veterans of the social gathering.

PAN barely improved on its 2019 election, receiving 7.2% of the vote, an end result that may be a little above its common end in all elections since 1999. Whereas apparently sustaining a constant help base, the social gathering has once more proven itself unable to interrupt from its core constituency.

PPP narrowly missed crossing the 4% threshold that election legal guidelines set because the “parliamentary threshold” that permits a celebration to be assigned seats within the DPR. PPP gained simply 3.88% of the vote: in a crowded subject of events interesting to the varied streams of the Islamic neighborhood, it seems PPP has struggled to keep up its raison d’être within the post-Suharto period.

What coat-tails? Prabowo speaks at a Gerindra social gathering assembly in West Java, December 2023. (Picture: Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya on Fb)

Dividing the spoils

The following large battle will probably be for management of the DPR and its committees. The present legislation regulating the legislature’s operation—identified by its Indonesian acronym, the MD3 legislation—states that the highly effective DPR speakership goes to the social gathering with the best illustration, with the 4 deputy speaker positions being taken by the events within the second to fifth locations. The management to be sworn in in October 2024 will subsequently look precisely the identical because the outgoing parliament’s, with PDI-P within the speaker’s chair and Golkar, Gerindra, PKB and Nasdem holding the deputies’ gavels.

The management and deputy leaderships of the parliamentary committees are distributed amongst the events in proportion to their variety of seats. With some 90 positions out there, the apportionment of those influential titles will see a recreation of labyrinthine politicking.

As a result of PDI-P holds first place with such a slender lead, the newly-strengthened Golkar ranks could start wanting with envious eyes to the speaker’s place and try to vary the MD3 legislation and have this strategic place determined based mostly on a majority vote of the events relatively than assigned by proper to the most important social gathering. Golkar’s capability to vary this or different laws will, after all, rely upon the steadiness of energy and allegiance amongst all of the events. Thus the ultimate large remaining query is which grouping of events will management the bulk within the DPR.

Prabowo might want to construct a coalition of events to help his administration in parliament. Underneath Indonesia’s presidential system, the president doesn’t want a parliamentary majority, however a hard parliament can be a serious obstacle for his presidency. At first look, this might sound a tough process for Prabowo as a result of Gerindra is much wanting a majority and even the addition of all of the events that supported his presidential candidacy solely brings his numbers to 43%.

As president Prabowo will undoubtedly observe the strategy of his predecessors and entice as many events as doable into his tent. Most events will seemingly be a part of his parliamentary alliance, with the doable exception being PDI-P. Whereas PKS stayed out of Jokowi’s governing coalition, it could discover Prabowo a extra amenable president. In any case, PKS could conclude that it gained nearly nothing in electoral phrases as an opposition social gathering within the final parliament and that leaping on the president’s bandwagon could deliver extra advantages.

Whereas it’s a truism {that a} wholesome legislature requires a wholesome opposition, previous expertise has proven that the majority Indonesian events are extra attracted by a share of the spoils of govt authorities than by the prospect of protecting the federal government accountable and offering another authorities. That is the place the politicking for DPR positions and jockeying for cupboard posts are instantly related to one another: a celebration’s DPR numbers are its major bargaining chip for a spot in cupboard and a ministerial put up is the important thing inducement within the president’s hand when looking for social gathering help.

So the upcoming weeks and months will see a unbroken flurry of flirtations, backroom conferences and negotiations amongst Prabowo and the leaders of the events to patch collectively a cupboard which roughly displays the steadiness of forces within the DPR. Prabowo’s cupboard will, like its forerunners, be a mixture of social gathering figures and, particularly within the financial portfolios, technocratic consultants.

DPR Speaker Puan Maharani along with her mom Megawati Soekarnoputri, June 2023 (Picture: Puan Maharani on Fb)

A stabilised two-track social gathering system?

The parliamentary election has produced few surprises and numerous continuity. The primary two or three elections after 1998 noticed main shifts in voter help. Firstly, the 1999 and 2004 elections noticed a speedy decline within the initially excessive vote going to PDI-P, Golkar and PPP as their networks decayed and the affect left over from the Suharto period waned.

Secondly, from 2004 to 2014 there was a fragmentation of the voters because the “presidentialist” events sprang as much as drive the political ambitions of latest leaders unwilling or unable to accommodate themselves within the current social gathering hierarchies. This contributed to a flattening out of the completely different ranges of help for every of the events, with the events holding essentially the most seats within the DPR not being very a lot greater than the smaller ones.

Since 2014, nevertheless, the parliamentary scene has stabilised, or maybe stagnated. The events seem to have succeeded in holding on to a core constituency of supporters, however haven’t been in a position to make progress past their base. Many of the events have achieved outcomes which are very near their common efficiency during the last three elections.

What’s it that these events supply to their respective constituencies and the way do they preserve their help? When repeated research and surveys have indicated a low degree of identification with (and loyalty to?) events, this raises the query of how it’s that the social gathering spectrum seems to have settled down right into a set variety of gamers with an ongoing reference to a gaggle of voters.

Amongst the general scene of stability, there have been three small notable developments. Firstly, though PPP was a sufferer of the legislative mechanism of the edge, its 2024 outcomes are solely the final of a sequence of declines that talk to the vital significance of sustaining a transparent voter base. Secondly, the digital disappearance of Hanura reveals the potential destiny of presidentialist events if their solely attraction is the character of their founder—therefore the eagerness of SBY to maintain his household answerable for PD. Thirdly, the failure of the Partai Solidaritas Indonesia (PSI) to interrupt into the circle of established events is a putting illustration of the problem of shifting the voter attitudes with no constituency that’s higher outlined than that of “youth”.

The truth that the newest entrant to the parliamentary contest, Nasdem, has seen regular progress within the final three elections via attracting the help of native notables, whereas having a comparatively low-key nationwide chief, attests to efficacy of grounding a celebration in localised politics. And the expertise of PKB’s restoration from its near-death expertise in 2009 reveals that any social gathering claiming to talk for a specific sector of society have to be credible amongst the grassroots of that constituency.

Given the eye that students have paid to the function the distribution of patronage and “cash politics” performs in election campaigns, and the truth that the social gathering vote has really modified little or no during the last three elections, we have to measure the extent to which shifting giant quantities of assets does really materially have an effect on election outcomes. Is the distribution of largesse solely as necessary as, say, the coat tail impact, or is it even lower than this? It might be that spending cash—and being seen to spend cash—is necessary for a celebration’s credibility as an enormous participant, and for servicing its personal supporters, however that it can’t actually transfer giant lots of voters.

The presidential and parliamentary elections seem to have taken on a really distinct character throughout simultaneous polls. In these final two elections, the presidential marketing campaign has develop into primarily a contest within the “air struggle” performed at a nationwide degree and particularly reliant on the mass media and, after all, on the character of a handful of gamers. The DPR elections, alternatively, whereas nonetheless affected by the color and motion of the presidential competitors, seem like more and more dominated by the techniques of the “floor struggle” the place native affinities, native figures and native patronage have develop into vital to success.

Separate presidential and parliamentary elections have regularly given rise to a two-track electoral contest and an related strengthening of a two-track social gathering system. Simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections appear to be giving additional impetus to this development. There may be fertile floor right here for additional analysis.