[Analysis] Macron on Western boots in Ukraine: What he really meant

“We are going to do every little thing in order that Russia can’t win this struggle,” Macron mentioned.

By Tuesday night, his remarks had seen the Kremlin warn of a world struggle and Germany, the UK, the US, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Italy, and the Czech Republic pour chilly water on Macron’s declaration.

“There will probably be no floor troops, no troopers on Ukrainian soil despatched there by European international locations or Nato states,” mentioned German chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, for one. “Boots on the bottom will not be an possibility for … Germany,” German defence minister Boris Pistorius mentioned.

Lithuania was an outlier in welcoming Macron’s assertion, however most reactions indicated he had misjudged the room.

Macron had proven France and Germany “couldn’t be additional aside” on Russia, mentioned Jana Puglierin, head of the Berlin workplace of the European Council on International Relations (ECFR) think-tank.

“That is no technique to promote European unity,” she mentioned.

French far-right and far-left politicians additionally jumped on the alternative to whip up public worry, saying Macron had risked “the lives of our kids” and was responsible of “insanity … belligerent verbal escalation”.

And Edward Lucas, a British author on European affairs, mentioned: “Macron has a document of unpredictability. He likes considering out loud”.

“This is able to be an enthralling eccentricity if he was a college professor, but it surely’s unsettling if he is commander-in-chief of one of many world’s nuclear-armed powers,” Lucas mentioned.

“I am unsure how significantly to take him,” Lucas added.

However regardless of the blowback, French prime minister Gabriel Attal repeated Macron’s line on Tuesday morning.

French liberal MEP and former Macron-cabinet minister Nathalie Loiseau additionally defended his feedback, saying he meant solely that Western army consultants would develop into extra lively in Ukraine, not that international troopers would go to battle en masse within the trench-and-artillery battlefields within the nation’s southeast.

“The thought is not to go to the frontline,” she instructed EUobserver on Tuesday.

“There’s a state of affairs which is evolving: The extent of the Russian risk is increased and we [Western states] need to adapt. If we need to enhance our help in numerous areas (de-mining, coaching, advising), we should not exclude the presence of army on the bottom,” she mentioned.

Particular forces

For Lucas, that simply meant extra of the identical, as a result of Western particular forces had been already in Ukraine.

“It is a secretive world, for comprehensible causes, however I’ve heard believable rumours we had the SAS [Special Air Service] in Kyiv on the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion [in February 2022] defending [Ukrainian president Volodomyr] Zelensky,” Lucas mentioned.

“The SBS [Special Boat Service] was additionally concerned within the Ukrainian operation to cross the Dniepr River [in summer 2003],” Lucas mentioned, referring to 2 British special-forces items.

“You could possibly simply think about British, American, Polish, and Baltic particular forces already working in Ukraine and even in Russia-occupied components of Ukraine,” he added, referring to duties akin to long-range reconnaissance, quite than “killing Russians”.

Jamie Shea, a former senior Nato official, additionally mentioned: “Doubtless, there have been Western particular forces in Ukraine for the reason that starting of the struggle and these can present coaching for Ukrainian particular forces and assist to plan sabotage and commando operations”.

“These are the form of help companies that Macron has in thoughts,” added Shea, who now teaches struggle research at Exeter College within the UK.

Extra of the identical nonetheless entailed increased threat, warned Matthew Savill from the Royal United Providers Institute think-tank in London.

“The Russians already imagine Western forces are closely concerned in Ukraine, so this may in all probability be seen as much less of an escalation than as ‘affirmation’ of their present suspicions. Nevertheless, they’d additionally see them as viable targets, and any nation contributing such forces must be ready to take casualties,” Savill mentioned.

Extra of the identical additionally meant extra Western arms for Ukraine, with Macron saying on Monday the EU can buy 155-mm artillery shells for Ukraine additionally from non-EU suppliers, akin to South Korea, if want be.

“The easiest way to place [Russian president Vladimir] Putin on the again foot is to present Ukraine limitless provides of Western arms and tighten the [anti-Russia] sanctions,” Shea mentioned.

However even when Macron’s “nothing needs to be excluded” was lower than a declaration of struggle in opposition to Putin, he had nonetheless crossed the rubicon in political phrases, Lucas mentioned.

Courageous new phrases

“That is the primary time a Western chief has ever publicly floated the concept of placing Western boots on the bottom in Ukraine,” the British author mentioned.

Macron had beforehand been one of the vital Putin-friendly Western huge fish, with visits to Moscow within the run-up to the Ukraine invasion in 2022 and common Putin-Macron telephone calls even afterwards.

However the French chief was now “opening a [new] dialog” on Ukraine, mentioned Camille Grand, from the ECFR think-tank’s Paris workplace.

The French chief wished to “ship a sign to Russia and Ukraine on Western resolve,” an EU diplomat in Brussels additionally mentioned.

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“Perhaps I underestimated him,” the diplomat mentioned.

And even when Macron has been dovish on Putin previously, French diplomats have been extra clear-eyed.

“The irreversibility of Russian strategic decisions make it essential to anticipate a [future] confrontation with Moscow,” the French Secretariat-Normal for Nationwide Defence and Safety, an offshoot of the French international ministry, mentioned in a Strategic Assessment in November 2022.

Nicolas Tenzer, an influential French author on international coverage, has additionally pushed for bolder Ukraine intervention in Paris.

“I have been advocating since a very long time publicly and privately that the EU or Nato ought to ship troops to safe Ukrainian liberated territories,” Tenzer instructed EUobserver on Tuesday.

“I made no distinction between CEE [Central and Eastern European] international locations and others,” he added, by way of whether or not French or Polish troops ought to do the job.

However for Lucas and different consultants, provides of Western weapons would imply extra ultimately than additional particular forces or courageous new phrases from the Élysée.

“The easiest way to place Putin on the again foot is to present Ukraine limitless provides of Western arms”, mentioned Shea, the ex-Nato official.

It is the shells, silly

“Artillery shells is the overwhelming query”, mentioned Lucas.

“Ukraine additionally wants extra Himars, extra Storm Shadows, and we’d like Taurus,” mentioned Lucas, referring to long-range Western missiles able to hanging targets in Russia.

Robert Baer, a former US intelligence officer who till lately suggested Kyiv on Western arms procurement, agreed.

Macron’s remark confirmed that “France has no confidence Ukraine can maintain on for much longer, and like many, it believes Putin will hold going. Who’s subsequent? The Baltics, Moldova?”, Baer instructed EUobserver on Tuesday.

However the French sabre-rattling was “empty … Putin is aware of it is a bluff,” Baer added.

“Nato would not have the weapons or troopers to battle a struggle with Russia, not if Putin continues à la Stalin in WWII. He is intent on restoring the Russian empire and destroying Western civilisation. He is in it for the lengthy recreation,” Baer mentioned.

“The query it’s worthwhile to take into consideration is — what number of 155-mm [artillery] shells does Nato have in its shares?”, Baer mentioned.

“Nato’s tanks have confirmed a bust in Ukraine, as have the [US air-defence missiles] Patriots,” he mentioned, debunking a delusion of Western technological superiority.

Shea, the ex-Nato official, additionally mentioned: “Russia is now on a everlasting struggle footing. It has transformed giant components of its business to struggle manufacturing. It’s importing giant portions of Iranian and North Korean weapons. It’s mobilising lots of of 1000’s of its younger males”.

“Putin is utilizing propaganda and political coercion to situation Russian society to just accept struggle as inevitable and needed. Even Russian college youngsters now endure army coaching. You can not dwell subsequent door to this sort of nation and never lose sleep at evening,” he mentioned.

However pessimism apart, for Lucas it was nonetheless potential to finish Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, if the West made the precise strikes.

“A Ukrainian victory begins with hitting Russian provide strains to Crimea to the purpose {that a} Russian presence in Crimea turns into unsustainable. We’re a brief approach off from chopping the highway and rail bridge to Crimea after which Crimea modifications from turning into a Russian risk to turning into Ukraine’s hostage”, Lucas mentioned.