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Again in February 2023, I did a chat with GPT to find out its understanding of provide and demand. I found that it didn’t perceive the idea, however I didn’t blame the AI. As an alternative, I argued that it mirrored a flawed understanding of S&D within the paperwork that GPT was educated on.
Claude 3 was simply launched, and I made a decision to research whether or not AI had progressed in its understanding of S&D. As we’ll see, it has not. I think it is because AI is restricted by the standard of the fabric that it trains on, at the least for the second. Maybe sooner or later will probably be in a position to “assume for itself”.
I had hoped that Claude 3 would acknowledge that the influence of a worth change on consumption will depend on whether or not the value change was brought on by a shift in provide or a shift in demand. It failed:
As I did in February 2023, I specified that I used to be on the lookout for an equilibrium final result, to make the query much less “tough”. As in 2023, this led to some weird confusion within the reply:
The lower in provide in step 5 is completely effective, however the way in which Claude causes between steps #3 and #5 is cringeworthy.
I anxious that the phrase “in equilibrium” might need confused Claude, main it to imagine I solely meant beginning in equilibrium. So I repeated the query with language making it clear I meant “stays in equilibrium”:
It is a bit higher, though it nonetheless misses the fundamental level that you just can not motive from a worth change. Claude had no foundation for assuming the value enhance was as a consequence of a decline in provide.
Apparently, at some stage Claude does “perceive” the fallacy of reasoning from a worth change . However right here the time period “perceive” is utilized in roughly the way in which a B pupil at a good college understands ideas. They’ll memorize them and supply solutions on assessments, however typically are unable to use the idea in a novel scenario.
I additionally repeated a query in regards to the influence of an expansionary financial coverage on rates of interest. As soon as once more, it assumed that rates of interest would fall, which is a mistake made by many economists. Extra worrisome is its declare that inflation expectations would additionally fall:
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