At Stake in the Istanbul Mayoral Race: Turkey’s Political Future

The competition to run metropolis corridor in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest metropolis and financial dynamo, is in some ways between one man who’s on the poll and one other who just isn’t.

The primary is the incumbent, Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a rising star within the political opposition who gained in a shock victory in 2019 and is extensively seen as a possible contender for the presidency.

The second is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who served as Istanbul’s mayor a long time in the past and has needed to return his hometown to the management of his governing Justice and Growth Get together since Mr. Imamoglu’s win.

The result can be determined by municipal elections on Sunday that may in some ways form Turkey’s political future.

A win for Mr. Erdogan’s social gathering would enable it to reclaim the political and monetary clout of operating Turkey’s largest metropolis, additional empowering a pacesetter whom critics accuse of main the nation towards autocracy. A win for the incumbent mayor, nevertheless, might reinvigorate the anti-Erdogan opposition and propel Mr. Imamoglu towards the following presidential election, anticipated in 2028, when he might face off in opposition to Mr. Erdogan.

“This election will decide the character of the political race in Turkey for the years to come back,” stated Sinan Ulgen, the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based analysis group.

The vote comes amid a protracted cost-of-living disaster, throughout which the worth of Turkey’s foreign money has sunk and many individuals have come to really feel poorer. It additionally follows presidential and parliamentary elections final Might that granted Mr. Erdogan one other time period, dashing the hopes of a coalition of opposition events that had joined forces to attempt to unseat him.

In that election, Mr. Erdogan secured victory regardless of widespread voter anger at inflation that had soared to greater than 80 p.c and criticism that his authorities had didn’t swiftly reply to highly effective earthquakes that killed greater than 53,000 individuals in southern Turkey in February 2023.

The opposition’s loss battered its morale and its coalition fell aside.

Many opposition voters now see Mr. Imamoglu as uniquely able to profitable in opposition to Mr. Erdogan’s social gathering, a lot in order that they predict he may very well be Turkey’s subsequent president.

“If Imamoglu wins Istanbul once more, individuals will assume that the prospect to beat Erdogan just isn’t all gone,” stated Seda Demiralp, a professor of political science at Isik College in Istanbul.

On Sunday, voters will elect mayors and different municipal officers throughout Turkey, however a lot of the main focus is on Istanbul, given its measurement and political and financial significance.

Dwelling to some 16 million individuals and straddling the Bosporus between Europe and Asia, Istanbul generates a lot of Turkey’s financial output. The metropolitan municipality has about 90,000 workers, many working for municipal corporations whose administrators the mayor nominates. All of that offers whoever sits in metropolis corridor vital alternatives to reward supporters with municipal jobs and contracts.

The race can be private. Mr. Erdogan, 70, grew up in Istanbul, the place his father labored as a ferryboat captain. His personal political profession leaped ahead when he gained an upset victory to change into town’s mayor from 1994 to 1998. Many residents hailed him for sensible governance that centered on quality-of-life points within the historical metropolis: cleansing up polluted streets and waterways and increasing operating water and sewer networks.

Whereas he later ascended to function prime minister and president, jobs technically based mostly in Ankara, the capital, he typically speaks of his love for Istanbul, whose wealthy historical past, cosmopolitan elite and booming vacationer sector have lengthy made it the jewel of Turkey.

Mr. Erdogan’s social gathering maintained management of town for a lot of the 25 years after he was elected there.

That’s the reason it was such a blow to Mr. Erdogan’s social gathering when Mr. Imamoglu, 52, defeated its candidate in 2019. Mr. Erdogan’s social gathering alleged electoral irregularities and Turkey’s election board ordered a rerun.

Mr. Imamoglu gained that, too, by a fair larger margin.

To attempt to take town again, Mr. Erdogan has thrown his weight behind Murat Kurum, a former city and setting minister in Mr. Erdogan’s authorities and a present lawmaker in his social gathering.

Mr. Kurum, 47, has marketed himself as a hands-on technocrat who will increase providers and rework Istanbul’s neighborhoods to guard residents from potential earthquakes, a serious concern in a metropolis that seismologists warn may very well be hit by an enormous one quickly, doubtlessly damaging a whole bunch of 1000’s of buildings.

“We think about an Istanbul the place none of our households would worry earthquakes anymore,” he stated at a big marketing campaign rally final Sunday on the runway of an previous airport. “All of our homes can be protected.”

He accused Mr. Imamoglu of operating town poorly.

“Right now, Istanbul is stressed and sad within the fingers of an insufficient administration,” he stated.

He referred to Istanbul as “town that gave us as a present our chief,” that means Mr. Erdogan, and promised to observe his needs.

“Our chief entrusted you to us,” he stated.

Mr. Erdogan then took the stage, delivering an extended speech wherein he accused Mr. Imamoglu of utilizing town to hunt increased workplace.

“Istanbul is at a crossroads,” he stated. “On one hand, there are those that solely say ‘me.’ On the opposite, there are those that say ‘solely Istanbul.’”

A lot of individuals who had come for the rally spoke at size of their love for Mr. Erdogan and the way he has run the nation, and with out mentioning Mr. Kurum.

“We’re right here to assist Erdogan,” stated Erkan Kirici, 49, a laborer in a clothes manufacturing facility. “He develops our nation and we would like the nation to maneuver ahead.”

At a separate, smaller rally days later, Mr. Imamoglu addressed individuals on the street from atop his marketing campaign bus, taking about wastewater disposal, parking and free transit playing cards and milk for low-income households.

He characterised himself as an underdog, noting that not solely Mr. Erdogan but additionally a number of ministers in his authorities had appeared in Istanbul to assist Mr. Kurum.

“They allegedly wish to take Istanbul again. From whom? From the nation itself!” he stated. “The subways performed by you or the subways performed by me — they’re all property of the nation. They assume the positions, the posts they’ve been elected to are their very own property.”

Within the crowd, Suna Hisman, 40, and her sister cheered on the mayor’s quips and waved Turkish flags.

“We love him,” she stated. “We assist him and God prepared he can be our president.”

Turkey’s subsequent nationwide election is anticipated on the finish of Mr. Erdogan’s mandate in 2028, however some Turks count on that he’ll search to stay in energy longer. He’s at the moment within the second of the 2 presidential phrases allowed by the structure. However a parliamentary name for early elections might enable him to run for one more time period, or he might search to alter the structure.

Mr. Erdogan’s critics accuse him of eroding Turkey’s democracy by utilizing the federal government to silence dissidents, co-opt the judiciary and cow the information media. Some analysts worry {that a} win for his social gathering in Istanbul might additional embolden Mr. Erdogan, accelerating such efforts.

“If the opposition loses now, there can be an extended interval with no elections and with a consolidated central authorities, which I believe is already extremely authoritarian,” stated Ms. Demiralp, the political science professor.

Mr. Erdogan and his supporters reject the concept he’s an aspiring autocrat, pointing to his and his social gathering’s lengthy report of success on the polls.

Gulsin Harman contributed reporting.