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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, I spent most of my time disentangling the problems of Trump’s “supersedeas bond” within the Engoron case. Extra quickly, as a result of sadly immediately there was loads else occurring!
Chicken Tune of the Day
Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Inyo Nationwide Forest; close to Horseshoe Campground, Kern, California, United States. “Chicken was vocalizing from very prime of medium sized Bristle-cone Pine tree…” For ten minutes! Seize a cup of espresso…
* * *
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order (Eighth Modification)
Engoron’s penalty appears so clearly extreme it might be grounds for enchantment underneath the Eighth Modification, however IANAL and no enchantment has really been filed. If in truth no Constitutional points are concerned, I’ll transfer this story to the Trump part underneath marketing campaign 2024, with the remainder of the lawfare stuff.
* * *
About that $355 million (plus curiosity) tremendous, how Trump can increase it, and whether or not he should do this straight away, alert reader Smith, M.J. commented:
The CNN Wire report on Trump’s enchantment of the civil fraud judgment is baloney. He won’t must put all the $355M in escrow throughout his enchantment. He’ll solely must submit a supersedeas bond to keep away from execution on the judgment pending enchantment. The precise value of such bonds is a fraction of the bond quantity, sometimes between 1%-10%, relying upon what different collateral is used. At the least that’s true for Texas, the place I did appellate work for 25 years. I doubt the scenario is any totally different in New York.
Let’s juxtapose that with this quote from Engoron’s ruling:
TheCourt hereby enjoins Donald Trump and the Trump Group and its associates from making use of for loans from any monetary establishment chartered by or registered with the New York State Division of Monetary Providers for a interval of three years.
Different non-lawyers have opined that this might stop Trump from getting a bond; I don’t suppose so, however let’s clear it up. So, we have to perceive what a supersedeas (from Latin, “you should desist”) bond is (within the State of New York), whether or not Trump can apply one, and the doubtless quantity Trump must deposit in escrow. However first a quick overview of the construction of the supersedeas bond enterprise from a podcast by Butler Snow, “The right way to Get a Supersedeas Bond“:
We specialise in surety bonds. An attention-grabbing reality to the readers is surety bonds is part of the insurance coverage trade. It represents a really small fraction, which is about 1%. We additional have a narrower focus than simply surety bonds, which is specializing in supersedeas bonds. That’s a tinier sliver, representing about 2% of the surety trade. That’s our complete enterprise. We work with attorneys all through the nation and all state and federal courts. … You’re a bond dealer, is that proper? That’s proper. We signify 35 totally different surety corporations. They’re primarily insurance coverage corporations within the trade that present these kind of bonds. These corporations vary from family names like Liberty Mutual, Zurich, to extra impartial corporations which might be possibly smaller, privately owned, that will concentrate on that one product.
As you’ll be able to think about with a market construction like that, for causes defined yesterday in two essential hyperlinks (right here and right here), search queries on supersedeas bonds are totally polluted by search engine marketing; it’s tough to give you something apart from brochureware and Wikipedia. So, not solely IANAL, I can solely do the perfect I can with what I can winkle out of the good mass of cruft. Corrections from people who find themselves legal professionals welcome! With that caveat–
What’s a supersedeas bond? From Surety One’s brochureware, “New York Attraction Bond (Supersedeas Bond ~ New York)“:
An enchantment bond is required of defendants and sometimes plaintiffs to a civil lawsuit when the interesting social gathering needs to remain assortment of a judgment. A New York enchantment bond, referenced within the New York C.V.P. as an “endeavor”, is the quickest method of staying the enforcement…. Though the statute doesn’t so state the New York “endeavor” can also be typically referred to in some venues as a New York “supersedeas bond”. The bond is nonetheless the identical factor, by advert totally different title. Sec. 2502, addresses the {qualifications} of sureties and the New York enchantment bond type, to wit; (a) Surety; type of affidavit. Until the courtroom orders in any other case, surety shall be: 1.) an insurance coverage firm licensed to execute the endeavor throughout the state: AND, (d) a Notary Acknowledgment.
(Within the sources I discovered, “supersedeas bond” and “enchantment bond” have been handled as synonymous. Notice additionally that there are an terrible lot of bond merchandise, from bailbords to bonds for tradespeople. Most likely every one among these verticals is regulated in a different way.) And:
Acquiring an enchantment bond quote is easy and fast. We require a solely full judicial bond software to supply a quote…. A New York enchantment bond software submission is reviewed and responded to inside one hour of receipt. We’re probably the most agile surety bond underwriter in the USA.
(Not, fairly presumably, for $355 million, nevertheless (though I suppose a extremely masterful dealer might put collectively a type of syndicate or flotilla, Dunkirk-style).
Investopedia offers the rationale:
An enchantment bond, or supersedeas bond, is a cost {that a} courtroom requires from an appellant who’s awaiting the enchantment of a judgment. The enchantment bond is required as an indication of fine religion that the judgment might be paid if the appellant loses, and to guard the successful social gathering ought to the dropping social gathering go bankrupt through the appeals course of.
The enchantment bond can also be used to restrict frivolous makes an attempt at an enchantment, because the appellant nonetheless has to pay the judgment upfront within the type of a bond, and should find yourself paying extra finally as a result of curiosity, charges, legal professionals, and many others.
Can Trump apply for a supersedeas bond? First, let’s put the overall query of whether or not Trump can apply for a mortgage in any respect in context. From Uncooked Story:
“Since Decide Engoron’s determination, of us have assumed that Trump can’t borrow from any main financial institution,” [MSNBC legal analyst Lisa Rubin] stated. “That’s not the case, in line with a finance pal.”
Rubin posted a picture from the ruling, by which Engoron outlines the conclusions.
“The order prohibits borrowing from any establishment chartered or registered with New York’s Division of Monetary Providers,” Rubin stated. “And that’s not an extended record.”…. “To be clear, I’m not saying any federally-chartered financial institution, say, would or ought to mortgage to him,” she wrote on Saturday. “However the formal restrictions are usually not what some of us thought they have been.”
It is a helpful clarification, however not fairly on level for this mini-post. What I did was discover a surety bond agency licensed in all fifty states: Colonial Bonds & Insurance coverage. Then I searched the New York State Division of Monetary Providers web site (NYDFS) for that establishment. It doesn’t seem. I due to this fact conclude that the supersedeas bond line of enterprise shouldn’t be regulated by the NYDFS, and therefore Engoron ruling doesn’t forbid Trump from making use of for a supersedeas bond.
How a lot would Trump must put up? That might appear to be extremely subjective (and I might think about to a level depending on the consumer’s degree of desperation). Butler Snow once more:
An enormous a part of what we find yourself working by means of with purchasers is knowing, to start with, what property they’ve accessible. What their preferences are. All people’s totally different. You should have one consumer that will need to use a letter of credit score and for an additional that will not be a perfect scenario, though they could have entry to it, as a result of possibly they’ve a borrowing capability they usually don’t need to impede that borrowing capability. Stepping in every of these totally different classes after which additionally layering that in with the timeframe that they must submit this bond. Whereas they might have a desire, they must prioritize and make it possible for their property don’t get pursued underneath the judgment. There’s a mix of things that must be thought of.
So, 10%? 100%? 100% plus future prices? Unknown. Investopedia:
The amount of cash required for the bond is commonly the precise judgment plus curiosity and is held whereas the enchantment is being debated.
NNA Surety:
Whereas normally within the quantity of the unique judgment, the courtroom might require the bond to be considerably bigger. Such bonds are meant to cowl the judgment, curiosity, courtroom prices, and lawyer’s charges incurred through the appeals course of.
Some states have particular guidelines on the worth of supersedeas bonds, like California, which requires them to be 150% of the judgment. In Florida, the quantity of the bond could embrace two years of statutory curiosity and be restricted to not more than $50 million per appellant. Texas requires the quantity of the supersedeas bond to be equal to the judgment, curiosity, and courtroom prices, however can’t exceed 50% of the judgment debtor’s internet price or $25 million, whichever is much less.
I can’t discover what New York requires. Readers?
I do suppose, nevertheless, that for an aggressive supersedeas bond agency, organising Trump’s bond can be “the deal of the century.” Who wouldn’t need to be the J.P. Morgan of the surety bond commerce? In fact, everyone’s received to eat….
* * *
“‘Who’s going to try this?’: Trump faces hurdles in securing enchantment bond for fraud case” [NBC]. “Until he needs to pay all the penalty whereas his anticipated enchantment is taken into account, Trump might want to submit an enchantment bond. That is sometimes as much as 120% of the judgment plus the present curiosity. At that charge, Trump’s authentic ruling with curiosity would point out he might want to safe a bond price greater than $540 million. Nevertheless it’s unlikely that the actual property baron will be capable of use his properties as collateral. It’s ‘not very engaging to take actual property as collateral,’ stated Neil Pedersen, proprietor of New York-based surety bond company Pedersen & Sons.” Which means, Pederson has already began to dicker on worth; as he ought to. Extra: “These property are usually not liquid, so if Trump loses the enchantment, the method of changing them to money might be tough — maybe much more so in a case that was centered round disputes in regards to the worth of Trump’s properties.” Extra: “One other complicating issue: Trump’s standing as a presidential frontrunner…. ‘Nobody’s ever needed to implement an indemnity settlement towards what might very properly be the following U.S. president,’ he stated.” • There may be, in fact, an unlimited inverted pyramid of liberal Democrat triumphalism balanced on the tiny apex of this single story…..
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
* * *
“Grasp and Commander: The Biden Canine Accused of Dozens of Extra Assaults at White Home” [Jonathan Turley]. “We started our dialogue of those incidents with Main, who continued to assault employees till the press lastly reported on the complaints from employees. Solely when it turned a public embarrassment did the Bidens ship Main to Delaware. Main was adopted in November 2018 from an animal shelter.” So the Bidens substitute Main with Commander: “Commander is answerable for at the least 24 assaults. The document reveals not solely a scarcity of concern by the Bidens for employees, however a weird litany of vicious German Shepherds of their care….. In a single eight-day interval, brokers have been bitten daily. Certainly, exterior of the White Home, the Biden canine would qualify for strict legal responsibility underneath the frequent regulation as displaying a vicious disposition…. I’ve taught torts for 3 many years, together with animal legal responsibility. In that point, I’ve by no means come throughout a case with such an extended historical past of canine assaults from a number of animals in a single household. There isn’t a query that the Bidens can be strictly liable in these assaults, however have been allowed to flee such legal responsibility as a result of the truth that that is the official residence. Below the frequent regulation, the Bidens might declare that Main and Commander have been entitled to ‘one free chew.’ They’re properly past that threshold.” • One vicious canine might be an unlucky accident. Two, no. Main and Commander are vicious as a result of the Bidens are vicious.
* * *
Republican Funhouse
“Mike Johnson invoked God in a GOP presentation on retaining the bulk. It didn’t land properly” [Politico]. Good. “Speaker Mike Johnson delivered a presentation at a weekend GOP retreat that — though it was billed as a map to retaining the Home majority — took on a surprisingly non secular tone, in line with two folks within the room. Johnson’s non-public remarks to a small group of Republican lawmakers at Miami’s Mandarin Oriental Lodge over the weekend alarmed each folks, who addressed the speech on situation of anonymity. Slightly than outlining a selected plan to carry and develop the bulk, these folks stated, Johnson successfully delivered a sermon. The Louisiana Republican confirmed slides to the members of his Elected Management Committee (ELC) workforce in a bid to tout the social gathering’s prospects of hanging onto its two-seat majority in November. Johnson, a religious Christian, tried to rally the group by discussing ethical decline in America — specializing in declining church membership and the nation’s shrinking non secular id, in line with each folks within the room. The speaker contended that when one doesn’t have God of their life, the federal government or ‘state’ will turn into their information, referring again to Bible verses, each folks stated. They added that the strategy fell flat amongst some within the room. ‘I’m not at church,’ one of many folks stated, describing Johnson’s presentation as ‘horrible.’”
“Why are Republicans leaving Congress?” [The Week]. “A few of Congress’ most skilled Republicans are headed for the exits. The 118th Congress has been ‘dominated by deep dysfunction and bitter divisions’ amongst Home Republicans, CNN stated. Slightly than stick out the chaos, members of the GOP’s ‘governing wing’ are more and more deciding to go away — almost two dozen are both resigning outright or gained’t search reelection. That is resulting in issues of ‘mind drain’ among the many social gathering trustworthy. ‘They’ve signed as much as do severe issues,’ stated Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who can also be leaving. ‘And we’re not doing severe issues.’ The departures embrace three committee chairs who introduced their exits inside just a few days final week, The Related Press stated. For some observers, the departures are an indication the GOP’s Home majority could also be misplaced in November. ‘Who needs to complete your profession right here within the minority?’ requested Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.).”
Democrats en Déshabillé
By no means say Democrats can’t activate a dime:
One of many best political adverts of this century: the 2012 Obama marketing campaign parades all of its “overseas coverage consultants” — Hillary, John Kerry, Madeleine Albright — to mock Mitt Romney as “dangerously trapped within the twentieth Century” for believing Russia is a grave US enemy:👇 https://t.co/wfUAsqUEqr
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 22, 2024
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
* * *
Immune Dysregulation
“Spike toxicity/SARS CoV 2 viral persistence and its position in Lengthy COVID.” [The Chris Cuomo Project]. • Good to see the pickup, however for paid subscribers solely. Sigh.
Variants
I hate chasing variants, however:
https://t.co/UsyTFa9zdf
— 𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍 joseph.vipond@ucalgary.ca (@jvipondmd) February 22, 2024
Sequelae
“Spontaneous, persistent, T cell–dependent IFN-γ launch in sufferers who progress to Lengthy Covid” [Science]. From the Summary: “We detected persistently excessive ranges of interferon-γ (IFN-γ) from peripheral blood mononuclear cells of sufferers with Lengthy Covid utilizing extremely delicate FluoroSpot assays. This IFN-γ launch was seen within the absence of ex vivo peptide stimulation and stays persistently elevated in sufferers with Lengthy Covid, in contrast to the decision seen in sufferers recovering from acute SARS-CoV-2 an infection…. Our examine highlights a possible mechanism underlying Lengthy Covid, enabling the seek for biomarkers and therapeutics in sufferers with Lengthy Covid.” • The biomarkers that the NIH spent a billion {dollars} explicitly not in search of.
“Heart problems as a part of Lengthy COVID: A scientific evaluate” [European Journal of Preventive Cardiology]. Meta. From the Dialogue: “Our systematic evaluate confirms that chest ache, palpitations, dyspnoea and syncope are probably the most generally reported signs amongst sufferers with Lengthy COVID syndrome. … Lengthy COVID has additionally been implicated within the improvement of recent onset CV illnesses in topics with out pre-existing co-morbidities… Moreover, Lengthy COVID could have a direct affect on the myocardium.”
In fact, these Redditors are getting no assist no matter from the general public well being institution:
pic.twitter.com/FJ18pBxUp8
— Salvatore Mattera (@SalvMattera) November 27, 2023
Elite Maleficence
“Joe Biden Fundraiser Co-Hosts Haim Saban And Casey Wasserman Check Optimistic For Covid; Will Miss L.A. Occasion — Unique” [Deadline]. Biden’s life is far more precious than yours: “Haim Saban and Casey Wasserman every examined optimistic for Covid forward of tonight’s occasion, forcing them to overlook the occasion, a number of sources instructed Deadline. The White Home nonetheless has strict testing protocols in place for anybody who is available in shut contact with the president.” • They know; they simply don’t need you to know.
Second verse, similar as the primary:
Rishi Sunak met King Charles at Buckingham Palace yesterday afternoon for the primary time since his most cancers analysis.
🔗 https://t.co/sB6yOhGfMi
Now, do you see what I see?! 👀
It’s a HEPA air filter, prominently positioned within the background of most of the photographs!
1/ pic.twitter.com/9d36xOxvSF
— Cat within the Hat 🐈⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 (@_CatintheHat) February 22, 2024
They know; they simply don’t need you to know.
* * *
“CDC advisory committee assembly on public well being points” [Alexander Tin’s notes, GitHub]. Numerous:
[KATE WOLFF:] And as Mandy mentioned this morning, actually wanting on the subsequent chapter of shifting ahead to be that robust foundational base of operational excellence throughout CDC, that may assist us actually succeed within the precedence areas that we’ve recognized as an company.
Good to see CDC employees on a first-name foundation with America’s #1 superspreading smiling face. Wolff is CDC’s chief of employees. She doesn’t masks both (and from her bio, she’s been dealing with political sizzling potatoes as a substitute of specializing in public well being). Extra:
[KATE WOLFF:] Our web site has lots of of lots of of 1000’s of webpages on it. And we now have been working actually exhausting to undergo each single a kind of to make it possible for the knowledge that we now have accessible to the general public is beneficial and significant and acceptable for that viewers.
We’re relaunching our web site right here this spring. And so we’ll maintain you all posted as these web sites get up to date, however we’re anticipating that we’ll have a discount of at the least 64% of our present content material as a part of this course of, and to no increase any alarm, we’re archiving every part, so we are going to nonetheless have every part accessible.
And so we will go discover something that we would want, however at the least, we count on that this can actually improve the usability of our web site for a broad public.
It is going to be attention-grabbing to see how intently Cohen and Wolf mirror HICPAC’s want to intestine affected person protections towards airborne sickness, and whether or not they transcend deprecating non-pharmaceutical intervention in their very own private practices and office, and craft the web site to suppress them. Tin’s notes mirror no consciousness of the problems of airborne viruses no matter, and embrace no self-reflection on CDC’s Covid response.
A great query:
So the place are the general public well being whistleblowers?Afraid of dropping their job?Is their job definitely worth the dying of 100,000+ folks yearly? The thousands and thousands being sacrificed to lengthy covid yearly?
— Scott Squires (@scott_squires) February 22, 2024
Bare Capitalism would welcome something CDC whistleblowers need to throw over the transom. We’ve give whistleblowers a platform for his or her materials earlier than, through the monetary disaster.
* * *
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Once more, no backward revisions. The uptick is actual (at the least to Biobot). Notice this anomaly:
Seems like Covid may not be seasonal? Who knew? Hoerger feedback:
Dangerous Information: Biobot #wastewater ranges are nonetheless rising.
Traditionally, February is marked by a speedy decline in transmission. 929 copies/mL corresponds to 1.35 million infections per day within the U.S. pic.twitter.com/tRvRhU9xA9
— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) February 20, 2024
[2] (Biobot) Right here, FWIW, is Verily regional information as of February 20. CDC Area 1:
And Area 2:
Verily information, then, reveals no anomaly. Presumably, Biobot sewersheds and Verily sewersheds don’t overlap.
[3] (CDC Variants) “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] (ER) Doesn’t help Biobot information. “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.”
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A bit of extra lower in slope, according to Biobot information, however not a lot. Let’s wait and see.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and received examined anyhow.
[8] (Cleveland) Flattening, according to Biobot information.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Down, albeit within the rear view mirror.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 totally dominant.
Stats Watch
Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of folks claiming unemployment advantages within the US sank by 12,000 to 201,000 on the week ending February seventeenth, properly under market expectations of 218,000, to mark the bottom declare depend because the 16-month low of 189,000 recorded 5 weeks prior. Moreover, persevering with claims fell by 27,000 to 1,862,000 within the ancient times, undershooting expectations of 1,885,000, suggesting that unemployed people are having a neater time to find appropriate jobs. The info added to the robust jobs report from January to underscore historic tightness within the US labor market, including leeway for the Federal Reserve to carry charges greater ought to inflation stay excessive.”
Nationwide Exercise: “United States Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index decreased to -0.30 in January 2024, from a revised 0.02 within the prior month, indicating exercise contracted through the month. Three of the 4 broad classes of indicators used to assemble the index decreased from December, and three classes made adverse contributions in January.”
* * *
Finance: “Dangerous property debt exceeds reserves at largest US banks” [Financial Times]. “Dangerous industrial actual property loans have overtaken loss reserves on the largest US banks after a pointy enhance in late funds linked to places of work, buying centres and different properties. The common reserves at JPMorgan Chase, Financial institution of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have fallen from $1.60 to 90 cents for each greenback of economic actual property debt on which a borrower is at the least 30 days late, in line with filings to the Federal Deposit Insurance coverage Company. The sharp deterioration happened within the final yr after delinquent industrial property debt for the six large banks almost tripled to $9.3bn. Michael Barr, who oversees financial institution supervision on the US Federal Reserve, stated on Friday that regulators ‘have been intently targeted on banks’ CRE lending’, together with ‘how they’re reporting their threat’ internally and whether or not they ‘provision appropriately and have adequate capital to buffer towards potential future CRE mortgage losses’. Throughout the broader US banking sector the worth of delinquent loans tied to places of work, malls, flats and different industrial properties greater than doubled final yr to $24.3bn, up from $11.2bn the yr earlier than.” • That’s not very a lot, until it’s levered up, and there’s no indicator it’s. CRE professionals within the readership?
The Bezzle: “Unique: Reddit in AI content material licensing cope with Google” [Reuters]. • Therefore, I might speculate, the moderator purge. The enshittification of Reddit proceeds apace.
Tech: “Google apologizes for ‘lacking the mark’ after Gemini generated racially various Nazis” [The Verge]. “Google has apologized for what it describes as “inaccuracies in some historic picture era depictions” with its Gemini AI device, saying its makes an attempt at making a “big selection” of outcomes missed the mark. The assertion follows criticism that it depicted particular white figures (just like the US Founding Fathers) or teams like Nazi-era German troopers as folks of coloration, presumably as an overcorrection to long-standing racial bias issues in AI…. And whereas a question for footage of ‘the Founding Fathers’ returned group pictures of virtually solely white males who vaguely resembled actual figures like Thomas Jefferson, a request for ‘a US senator from the 1800s’ returned an inventory of outcomes Gemini promoted as ‘various,’ together with what seemed to be Black and Native American girls. (The primary feminine senator, a white girl, served in 1922.) It’s a response that finally ends up erasing an actual historical past of race and gender discrimination —”inaccuracy,” as Google places it, is about proper.”
* * *
At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 78 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 69 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 79 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 22 at 1:41:07 PM ET.
Public Well being
“One other pandemic an ‘absolute certainty’, WHO chief warns on go to to Dublin” [Irish Times]. “One other pandemic is an ‘absolute certainty’ for which Eire and different international locations want to organize, the World Well being Organisation’s senior official in Europe has warned throughout a go to right here. ‘We simply don’t know when or the place it should emerge,’ stated Dr Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe. ‘The emergence of novel infectious illnesses is a pure situation of dwelling on the planet. Modernity and globalisation [natural, you say] have solely sped up the processes whereby they will journey world wide at breakneck pace, as we noticed with Covid-19, and can see once more,’ he stated. The world would have realized nothing from the Covid-19 pandemic if it didn’t put money into preparedness for future well being shocks, he instructed The Irish Occasions in an interview.” • I agree. It will be good if WHO had not fully discredited itself on masking and airborne transmission through the present pandemic (with all those that butchered their duties so badly nonetheless in energy).
“The WHO Illness Outbreak Information through the Covid-19 pandemic” (preprint) [medRxiv]. “[T]he most continuously used outlet (and the one official public document of outbreak
historical past curated by the WHO) is the Illness Outbreak Information (DON), a web-based useful resource that has been curated since 1996 and captures 1000’s of outbreak experiences from world wide. Stories within the DON continuously seize the outbreak location, the causative agent (if recognized) or symptomology, and different important info, corresponding to case counts, particulars on response efforts, or WHO steering. Between January 1996 and December 2019, a complete of two,789 experiences have been revealed within the DON, capturing developments in main epidemics just like the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic, uncommon occasions detected by syndromic surveillance, and every part in-between. The DON is mostly understood to be an incomplete document of infectious illness outbreaks: the illnesses and international locations which might be represented have shifted by means of time, reflecting not simply the worldwide historical past of outbreaks, but in addition the priorities of the WHO and the issues of Member States. … Stories associated to the Covid-19 pandemic accounted for a small proportion (3%) of complete outbreak reporting between 2020 and 2023: solely 9 experiences have been revealed associated to Covid-19, all in 2020. An preliminary cluster of 5 experiences have been revealed between January 5, 2020 and January 17, 2020…. Covid-19 didn’t reappear within the Illness Outbreak Information once more till November 6, 2020…. ” And: Probably the most attention-grabbing circumstances could also be the place WHO breaks from this established course of: for instance, the Alpha and Beta variants of Covid-19 have been recorded within the DON, however the Omicron variant, which not solely had the next affect on human well being, but in addition led to extra vital worldwide disruptions of journey and commerce, was not.” • “Displays” “the priorities of the WHO and the issues of Member States,” eh?
* * *
“Florida official defers to oldsters on if children ought to return to high school amid measles cluster” [Miami Herald]. “Though measles is very contagious amongst these missing immunity, [Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo} released a statement Tuesday night saying the Florida Department of Health is deferring to parents and guardians to choose if their children are safe to keep going to classes in the face of what health officials are calling a ‘cluster of measles cases’ at the school…. Ladapo cited the ‘high immunity rate in the community’ and ‘the burden on families and educational cost of healthy children missing school’ as his reasons for making the recommendation.” • Commentary:
The WHO estimates 50 million lives have been saved since 2000 by measles vaccinations and outbreak responses.
Disagreeing with COVID policies during a once in a century pandemic is not a valid reason to disregard decades of life-saving health practices. https://t.co/BepcI480fJ
— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) February 22, 2024
And:
Ignoring basic public health for Covid was clearly going to damage our approach to all infectious diseases. The required habits to defeat pathogens are common to all of them. Weaponising those habits as restrictions on freedom has broken what we do for all infectious disease.
— Henry Madison (@RageSheen) February 22, 2024
Correct.
Zeitgeist Watch
“LE SSERAFIM Members Talk New Mini-Album Easy & Coachella 2024 Plans” [Teen Vogue]. “… incursions into Latin pop and reggaeton with “Hearth within the stomach” and “ANTIFRAGILE“… the white swan, black swan idea… ” • Can someone please clarify to me how and why Taleb memes have infiltrated Okay-Pop? I imply, one doesn’t hear Taylor Swift singing about fats tails, amiright or amiright?
Class Warfare
“Ford’s Battery Flagship Socked by Mould Illness, Employees Say” [Labor Notes]. “Final fall, Dugan was one among 1000’s of union development employees to reach in small-town Glendale, Kentucky, to construct an enormous manufacturing facility for Ford and SK On, a South Korean firm. The plant, when accomplished, will make batteries for almost 1,000,000 electrical pickup vehicles every year. When Dugan walked in, big picket packing containers containing battery-making machines, largely shipped from abroad, have been laid throughout the mile-long manufacturing facility ground. Black streaks on these picket packing containers, plus the scent, instantly raised alarm bells for employees. However for months, these issues have been met with little treatment from the contractors employed by BlueOval to supervise development. Dugan and scores of others now consider they’re within the midst of a well being disaster on the website. ‘We don’t get sick pay,’ Dugan stated. ‘You’re sick, you’re out of luck.’ The BlueOval SK Battery Park, billed to open in 2025, is a banner challenge for President Joe Biden’s Inflation Discount Act, a program of public subsidies and financing to corporations shifting away from fossil fuels. The Division of Vitality has pledged to help the development of three BlueOval crops in Tennessee and Kentucky with a $9.2 billion low-cost mortgage. However underneath all of the high-tech inexperienced fanfare, a number of development employees, together with some who wished to be nameless, say the positioning has been gripped by mildew and respiratory sickness—medieval hazards that employees really feel managers uncared for within the strain to shortly open the plant.” • Superb. The Biden Administration gave no thought to air high quality within the office. Arduous to consider, I do know!
“Performative Contexts” [nonsite.org]. Holy Lord, did the deconstructionists wreak havoc. “What the evaluation of context as performative utterance brings out is the way in which that each relations of power and relations of that means are at work in acts of contextualization. These acts produce results within the materials world, however in addition they operate as automobiles for intentional that means.”
Information of the Wired
“The thriller of the storage” [Strange Loop Canon]. “Philo Farnsworth, of tv fame, did a lot of his early experiments in a lab arrange in his storage. Lego received its begin as a toy firm, the place Ole Christiansen began constructing picket toys in his carpentry workshop…. I don’t know why it’s that garages turned these areas so completely conducive to outsized innovation origin tales. They’re the successor to the outdated days of loopy innovation, of tinkering on a hydroplane along with your fortune and a twinkle in your eye. However I do know we ought to seek out a solution to how we will create extra such areas, and encourage following the type of ardour that leads folks to need to spend all their time tinkering on an issue, and check out our damnedest to not let overthinking destroy it on the most nascent phases.”
“Did fermented meals gasoline mind progress?” [Harvard Gazette]. “‘Mind tissue is metabolically costly,’ stated [Erin] Hecht, an assistant professor of human evolutionary biology. “It requires a whole lot of energy to maintain it working, and in most animals, having sufficient power simply to outlive is a continuing drawback.’ … For the larger-brained Australopithecus to outlive, due to this fact, one thing will need to have modified of their weight-reduction plan. Theories put ahead have included adjustments in what they consumed or, most popularly, that the invention of cooking gave them extra usable energy from no matter they ate. The issue with this principle is that the earliest proof locations the usage of hearth at roughly 1.5 million years in the past — considerably later than the event of the hominid mind. ‘Our ancestors’ cranial capability started rising 2.5 million years in the past, which conservatively offers us a couple of 1-million-year hole within the timeline between mind measurement rising and the attainable emergence of cooking know-how,’ stated Katherine L. Bryant… ‘No matter modified of their diets needed to have occurred earlier than brains began getting greater,’ stated Hecht, who additionally famous that in the previous few years researchers have postulated different choices, such because the consumption of rotting meat. Within the new paper, she and her workforce provide a unique speculation: that cached (or saved) meals fermented, and that this ‘pre-digested’ meals supplied a extra accessible type of nourishment, fueling that greater mind and permitting our ancestors to outlive and thrive by means of pure choice.” • Hmm. Honey, too, so fermented drink?
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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From JM:
JM writes: “I don’t even know what that is, nevertheless it was rising subsequent to the thrift retailer parking zone, and it was so putting.” Readers?
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
When you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on the right way to ship a examine. Thanks!
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