2:00PM Water Cooler 12/29/2023 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, I had an emergency speak with a buddy whereas I wrote this, and so this submit might be a bit skinny. After 2:00 I’ve some administrivia to do. I could possibly return after then and add orts and scraps. We’ll see!

And on one other notice: I shall not be unhappy to see the final of 2023; it was an absolute pest of a yr, chock filled with reminders that we do certainly dwell within the stupidest timeline. Given the givens, my hopes for 2024 will not be excessive, however prediction is difficult, particularly concerning the future; the world is difficult and we don’t know loads, we could get fortunate, and in any case we are going to persist! And so, with that changed rapture, I’ll see you within the New Yr, which I hope is a cheerful one for all of us. And keep protected on the market!

Chicken Track of the Day

White Stork, CHKO Poodří–PR Kotvice, Moravskoslezský kraj, Czech Republic. Extra percussion and winds!

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“Maine secretary of state bars Donald Trump from state’s presidential main poll” [Portland Press Herald]. “‘I’m conscious that no secretary of state has ever disadvantaged a presidential candidate of poll entry based mostly on Part 3 of the 14th Modification,’ [Shenna Bellows] mentioned. ‘I’m additionally conscious, nonetheless, that no presidential candidate has ever earlier than engaged in riot.” • Right here is Bellows’ bio; she got here up via liberal Democrat NGOs, which after all has conservatives bellowing that she’s a communist. Right here is the ruling.

“John Dean: ‘Trump’s in hassle’ after Maine ruling” [John Dean, The Hill]. “The Trump marketing campaign pledged to enchantment the Maine ruling, and the Supreme Court docket is anticipated to take up the Colorado case. Dean mentioned he doesn’t suppose the Supreme Court docket would go towards both resolution, citing a plain studying of the modification’s textual content. ‘I wish to see these strict constructionists and originalists get round that language,’ he mentioned. “How are they going to do it? I don’t know. It appears so relevant. I don’t know what they’ll do with it apart from take [Trump] off the poll.’”

“The Mess in Maine” [Matt Taibbi, Racket News]. “I’m no lawyer, however I doubt the 14th Modification was designed to empower unelected state officers to unilaterally strike main social gathering frontrunners from the presidential poll. If it was, that’s a shock. I should have missed that in AP Insane Authorized Loopholes class. Is there any approach this ends properly? It feels more durable and more durable to think about.”

2024

Lower than a yr to go!

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“FBI shocker: Agent advised boss Biden laptop computer could possibly be Russian disinformation, however crew knew in any other case” [Just the News]. “The FBI agent who ran the bureau’s International Affect Activity Pressure (FITF) through the 2020 election admitted in Congressional testimony that he suggested his management that Hunter Biden’s laptop computer could possibly be a part of a Russian disinformation marketing campaign, apparently unaware his crew already knew that the FBI had obtained and corroborated the pc as “actual,” in response to interview transcripts reviewed by Simply the Information. Retired FBI Particular Agent Bradley Benavides’ account to the Home Judiciary Committee comes as congressional investigators collect mounting proof that the federal government’s early efforts to determine and block alleged misinformation in politics have been so haphazard as to inject inaccurate, speculative, or incomplete data themselves into the general public area.” • “Haphazard” appears like “errors had been made” to me.

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IA: “Iowa doesn’t matter” [The Hill]. “Ted Cruz gained Iowa in 2016. Rick Santorum gained in 2012. Maybe these finishes helped them clear the sector, however in the end every man fell wanting the nomination. Huckabee gained in 2008 — and John McCain, the eventual nominee, completed fourth. You must return to 2000 to discover a GOP presidential nominee who gained Iowa, with George W. Bush. In actual fact, you can make the argument that if you wish to win the GOP nomination, you’d be higher off shedding Iowa, given current outcomes. After all, that’s prone to change in 2024, and that’s another excuse for Iowa’s inconsequentiality this cycle. Donald Trump, taking part in the function of each scorned incumbent and renegade challenger, has Iowa all however locked up. He’s up 33 factors within the RealClearPolitics polling common, a place primarily unchanged over the previous 5 months. A powerful DeSantis second-place exhibiting — possibly solely shedding by 20 — will really feel like a pyrrhic victory…. Now, the good cash is on 2024 being a yr of unprecedented political chaos. So maybe Iowa will shock us all, each the prognosticators and junkies within the press and the final voters. Possibly the polls are traditionally fallacious!”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

d>. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

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“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Plenty of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with persona modifications therefrom.

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Elite Maleficence

I don’t know the way Trump got here to appoint Jerome Adams, or how Adams ended up as one of many few sane voices round:

Most of the replies/ feedback under illustrate why we’re caught as a society.

Some (too many) folks: “We will’t transfer ahead till public well being and officers admit their errors!!!

Identical folks (after public well being/ officers admit their errors): SEE!! They admitted it!… https://t.co/h1MzNzHmhJ

— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) December 29, 2023

I’m of two minds on this. If we had been investigating public well being debacles the best way we examine plane crashes, we’d take away the penalizing factor in favor of getting good data, to forestall the subsequent crash. However that wasn’t the norm getting into. It could be a good suggestion going ahead, however personally I feel the dock within the Hague Tribunal is the place for all these folks. Or, to be good, testimony at a “Peace and Reconcilation” fee. Not that this can by no means occur, as a result of no person from the PMC upward is ever accountable for something (besides the odd DEI dogpiling incident. However milllions of misplaced lives? Heaven forfend).

A minimum of he mentioned “minimal” as a substitute of delicate:

I’ve examined optimistic for Covid. My signs are minimal and I’ll proceed to make money working from home in Vermont whereas isolating in accordance with CDC steerage. I’m glad to be absolutely updated with the vaccine.

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) December 28, 2023

There’s loads fallacious with this totally typical assertion. First, “minimal signs” erases each asymptomatic transmission and the truth that neurological and vascular harm, plus Lengthy Covid, can resuilt from even “delicate” circumstances. Second, Sanders shouldn’t be normalizing “powering via” Covid by working; IIRC, extra effort — too lazy to search out the hyperlink — is one option to find yourself with Lengthy Covid. Additional, Sanders must be modeling sick depart ffs.

“I Had COVID-19 and Tried to Change My Flight. JetBlue Gave Me the Final Reply I Anticipated” [The Messenger]. “I didn’t wish to fly with COVID and pleaded with JetBlue to vary my flight and droop the payment for switching. I defined that I used to be visiting my accomplice’s household, certainly one of whom may be very sick. Even when JetBlue was superb with my Covid-positive standing, I’d have nowhere to remain when arriving in California. I requested the JetBlue agent to waive the fare distinction in order that I may fly to San Francisco on a unique day. She mentioned she couldn’t achieve this. Then the JetBlue agent advised me the very last thing I anticipated: I may fly with the virus. She did counsel a precaution — a face masking. Her supervisor had the identical reply: I may get on my authentic flight with Covid, however the airline wouldn’t waive the fare distinction for a brand new flight two days later.” • No matter “face masking” means. Why not simply masks the entire airplane?

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Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, December 23:

Lambert right here: Nonetheless going up. As a very “intestine really feel” tapewatcher, I’d anticipate this peak to fulfill or exceed the 2 earlier Biden peaks; in any case, we haven’t actually begun the subsequent bout of vacation journey, or the subsequent rounds of superspreading occasions celebrations. Plus college students haven’t come from from college, after which returned. So the next peak appears just about “baked in.” And that’s earlier than we get to new variants, like JN.1. The actual factor to look at is the slope of the curve. If it begins to go vertical, and if it retains on doing so, then maintain onto your hats.

Regional knowledge:

Regional cut up continues.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 23:

Lambert right here: JN.1 now dominates. That was quick.

From CDC, December 9:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 23:

Lambert: Return to upward motion. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is just not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we’ve got as a proxy for Covid an infection general.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of December 27:

Lambert right here: I don’t nonetheless don’t just like the slope of that curve, and spot we’re approaching earlier peak ranges (granted, not 2020 or 2022, however respectable).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. December 16:

Transferring forward briskly!

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

Lambert right here: Discover that for each Walgreens and the Cleveland Clinic, that though the share of positives is steady, absolutely the numbers have tremendously elevated; Walgreen’s doubled. This speaks properly of individuals; they’re getting examined earlier than the vacations (and in face of a shit*tstorm barrage of propaganda and peer stress to attenuate, too).

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, December 26:

-2.3%. Down. (It could be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and received examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, December 23:

Lambert right here: Plateauing. I do know that is simply Ohio, however we’re starved for knowledge, so….

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, December 4:

Turning down.

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, December 4:

BA.2.86 turns down. This is able to be an amazing early warning system, if the warning had been in reality early, as a substitute of weeks late, good job, CDC.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Occasions, based mostly on CDC knowledge, December 16:

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Chicago PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Enterprise Barometer, also referred to as the Chicago PMI, fell to 46.9 in December 2023 from 55.8 in November, properly under market expectations of 51. The most recent studying signaled that Chicago’s financial system returned to contraction in December.”

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Manufacturing: “Lacking piece on plane prompts Boeing to ask airways to examine all 737 Max jets” [CNN]. “Boeing has requested airways to examine all of their 737 Max jets for a possible unfastened bolt within the rudder system after an airline found a possible drawback with a key half on two plane. An unnamed worldwide airline discovered a bolt with a lacking nut in a rudder-control linkage mechanism whereas conducting routine upkeep – and it discovered the same bolt that wasn’t correctly tightened in a yet-to-be delivered airplane. An airplane’s rudder is used to regulate and stabilize the plane whereas in flight. Boeing mentioned the airplane with the lacking bolt was mounted, nevertheless it desires to make sure all 1,370 737 Max planes in service worldwide are checked for comparable issues…. The half in query is a vital security merchandise, for which the FAA requires double inspection. Meaning two units of eyes should log out that it’s prepared for flight…. The Max has confronted quite a few notices for extra inspections because it returned to service. Boeing says that’s a results of its elevated concentrate on security, however a lacking nut on a vital system can’t be defined away, famous CNN security analyst David Soucie. ‘If the airplane left the manufacturing unit with this lacking half, it signifies the previous three years of security tradition enhancements and improved inspections on vital security of flight techniques at Boeing isn’t working,’ Soucie mentioned.” • Yep.

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At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 77 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 78 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 29 at 1:34:46 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

“College chancellor fired after porn movies floor” [The Hill]. “College of Wisconsin-La Crosse (UW-La Crosse) Chancellor Joe Gow was allegedly fired for producing and showing in pornographic movies together with his spouse after the college found the content material. Gow advised The Hill his free speech rights had been being violated after movies together with his spouse, former UW-La Crosse professor Carmen Wilson, surfaced and the college advised him he was not allowed to be chancellor. …. Gow mentioned it was ‘fairly a shock’ after they advised him he was fired since he had a dialog with HR beforehand concerning the movies, saying the assembly ‘went properly and happy their considerations.’… He argues he ought to have had a listening to to elucidate himself earlier than termination, telling the Related Press that ‘when cheap folks perceive what my spouse and I are creating, it calms them down.’” • Hmm.

Information of the Wired

“Each Main Pharmacy Chain Is Giving The Authorities Warrantless Entry To Medical Information” [TechDirt]. “The personal entities concerned right here most likely have extra cause than most to not attempt to piss the federal government off. Not solely are they nonetheless struggling to get better from a widespread retail downturn ignited by a worldwide pandemic, however they’re additionally paying off giant settlements to the federal government for taking part in issues a bit too quick and unfastened when it got here to handing out opioids to People. As Beth Mole experiences for Ars Technica (and following on the heels of the information pharmacy chain Ceremony Support is dealing with a five-year facial recognition tech ban), each main participant within the retail pharmacy enterprise has been handing over delicate medical knowledge to the federal government with out ever demanding to see an precise warrant.” • That’s good.

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CK:

CK writes: “Here’s a shot of a December night in Eugene Oregon. Wishing you all the very best of the season to you and yours.” And to you CK, and to you, pricey readers!

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